U.S. Presidential Election Forecast, 2024

Trump58.8%
0 D
+0.8 W
+5.3 M
Y
Latest from Realtime (Beta)
Trump’s 2024 election forecast at 58.4% based on prediction market data
Prediction market data shows a 4.9 percentage point increase over the past month, despite a minor daily decrease.
Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election are currently at 58.4%, showing a minor decrease of 0.2 percentage points over the past day, but an overall increase of 4.9 percentage points over the past month.
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60%Trump0 D+ 1 W+ 9 M+ 26 Y
61.58%Trump- 2 D- 2 W- 0.6 M Y
56.8%Disapprove- 0.3 D- 0.3 W+ 0.4 M+ 2.5 Y
97%Trump- 1 D+ 2 W+ 4 M+ 35 Y
53.9%Trump+ 4.1 D+ 10.4 W+ 9.8 M Y
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